When Whispers turned into Sirens
Written on October 3rd , 2021 by {"login"=>"jcbphc21", "email"=>"f20181005@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in", "display_name"=>"Journal Club, BPHC", "first_name"=>"Journal Club", "last_name"=>"BPHC"}Prologue
From the highest hilltop in the vicinity, you could see smoke rising from the city. An endless maze of crisscrossed roads and empty cars dotted the expanse of the town, making it look like its inhabitants had abandoned it in a hurry. As the dry wind whipped up the dust into waves, forming a natural smokescreen, you could barely make out the shapes that were darting to and fro between buildings. The ghost city was alive, alive with the sound of battle – shots being fired non-stop, men shouting orders and curses, and some even screaming for help. And amid everything, a car was making a mad dash straight for what appeared to be the police department. If you had looked closer, you would have probably seen a turban-clad, unshaved man desperately trying to control the steering wheel – a man who had made the final decision never to turn back.
The story begins in April, as the newly-elected President Biden addressed the world with fresh updates on the United States' plan for Afghanistan. On April 12, Biden said that his government had decided to go ahead with the pullout of American troops in Afghanistan. They believed they had done enough to train and advise their military and were sure that the Afghans could defend themselves capably. However, the United States would not meet the May 1 deadline that Trump had declared. No tentative date of the complete withdrawal was given, but it was clear that the US would begin extractions at the start of May. At that time, there were 300,000 troops currently in the ANSF (Afghan National Security Force), and they outnumbered the Taliban three to one, who had only 75,000 or so members. Combined with the American and NATO air support, the Ghani government had somehow managed to hang on to the country.
Biden's failure to meet the deadline did not sit well with the Taliban. The Dushman had claimed to leave silently by the date but was now behaving strangely. For the US, May 1 was the beginning of their withdrawal. For the Taliban? It was an invitation.
May – The Month of Preparation
Geography of Afghanistan
To understand how the Taliban took Afghanistan, we need to learn a bit about the country's geography. Afghanistan is divided primarily into 34 provinces; some include Badakshan, Takhar, Kunduz in the North; Farah and Herat in the West; Ghazni, Kandahar, and Helmand towards the South; and Kabul right in the center. These provinces can contain almost a thousand villages and are further cut up into numerous (421 to be exact) smaller districts. Each province also has at least one major city, called the 'Provincial Capital,' with a relatively large concentration of security forces. These provincial capitals usually share the name with the province. For example- Kunduz city is the capital of Kunduz province.
Ignition – Start of the Taliban's Campaign
Before May, the Taliban held 73 districts in various provinces but didn't have a single provincial capital. These districts were deemed retrievable in the sight of both the Afghanis and the Americans. But as the month progressed, fighting broke out in the smaller provinces like Maidan Wardak. Little by little, news began to spread of Taliban activity in various places. On May 12, these rumors came true as Talibani forces advanced into the Nirkh district – killing and wounding several security forces. In hours, they had overrun the city and set their eyes on the neighboring district of Jalrez.
On May 16 began the siege of Jalrez. The district would fall five days later due to a lack of supplies and reinforcement- and just like that, by the end of the month, the Taliban had secured 15 other districts and taken their hold to 88 in total.
June – The Month of Labor
The First Wave – Sher Khan Bandar and Pul-i-Khumri
The momentum gained in May transferred to June. All through the month's starting, rural districts in minor provinces fell to the enemy's sword. It was becoming difficult not to notice the steady advance of the Taliban into Afghanistan. At least ten districts fell without a single shot being fired. This was the result of the strategy of the American-Afghan alliance to abandon rural areas at any sudden rise in insurgent activities. The government and its advisors had always proposed that the security forces fall back to major cities or provincial capitals for a 'tactile advantage.' This, however, meant free gains for the often-outnumbered terrorists. It was also the reason that the defending alliance always aimed to concentrate troops in these major cities.
Finally, on June 22, Sher Khan Bandar was taken after the security officials fled their posts. The Bandar is the main border crossing into the neighboring country of Tajikistan. It is located in Kunduz, one of the significant northern provinces. Within twenty-four hours of capturing the crossing, 13 districts in the vicinity fell, including three in Kunduz. In under a day, the city of Kunduz was under attack from multiple directions and placed under siege. The Afghan government deployed forces to counter this but was met with fierce resistance that refused to move.
The next day, June 24, Pul-e-Khimri came under attack. This is the largest city in the Baghlan province and a key industrial hub that houses about 250,000 people. The ANSF managed to retake three districts in other areas and the head of Baghlan Province security department, Saifullah Mazlom, even assured the people,
"Pul-e-Khumri city will not fall, at any cost. The people should carry on their business and duties with a peaceful mind."
He couldn't have been more wrong.
But the offense continued, and, on the same day, the bloodshed reached another city—the birthplace of Mahmud.
Boots on the ground – The North and Ghazni
To stress that Ghazni is an important city is to understate. It is placed strategically in the middle of the road between Kandahar and Kabul. To capture this would be to dent the supply route to Kabul, the country's capital.
Fierce fighting continued from June 24 to 29th, leading to the fall of Qarabagh, Mukur, Ghelan, and Ab Band in the Ghazni Province. Again, the Afghan Army was running a half-baked defense and retreating to the inner cities. A massive bomb was detonated to clear away Afghan forces as the Taliban pressed on. Over the days, the situation got so dire that the locals began to fight alongside the soldiers to repel the attack. On July 8, the enemy got aggressive and attempted to enter Nawar and Jaghuri, which were in the province's center, but the Army could keep them from doing so. Therefore, on July 10, they placed the city under an indefinite siege.
Meanwhile, back in the North, the provinces of Badakshan and Takhar were being contested heavily. Badakshan is the fifth-largest province in the entire country. Along with Kunduz and Takhar, it forms the northern frontier of Afghanistan. The Taliban had never had a notable presence there, but on June 12, they managed to oust the Afghan Army from the district of Arganj Khaw. There were heavy casualties on the government's side; now, the invaders had a foothold in the North.
The Takhar province is a very different story from the rest. Here, the Army did not just stand and watch. Chah Ab, Khwaja Ghar, and Bangi districts fell to the Taliban near June 10 but were retaken days later by the Army. This was a key victory for the defenders. Even though heavy clashes would make Chah Ab fall on July 4, Bangi and Khwaja Ghar would hold out till August 7th and 22nd, respectively. On June 12, the city of Taluqan – the capital of Takhar Province – came under threat from the mujahideen. The Taliban aggressively took nearby districts from the Afghan Army, but the exchange was not smooth. Looking back now, the North was one of the most severely fought regions of the entire takeover, but many districts were won over when the security forces, once again, abandoned their posts. In fact, in Baharak (one of Takhar's districts), 110 members of the ANSF and police surrendered to the Taliban.
By the end of June, Khwaja Ghar, Bangi, and Taluqan remained the only three districts under government control in Takhar, with the gates of Taluqan being besieged. Badakshan Province followed the same fate and reported only two of its twenty-eight districts in government hands on July 5. One of these two districts being Faizabad, the capital of Badakshan. This was literally the mirror case of its neighbor, Takhar.
The thing about both these provinces is that they are vital strongholds of the 'Lion of Panjshir.' One of the most revered figures in Afghan history – Ahmad Shah Massoud. Massoud was a guerrilla warrior who fought against the Soviets when they invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and led troops to counter the invaders. He successfully defended the Panjshir valley against the Russians and earned the title – 'Lion of Panjshir.' After the war, he joined the political party, Jamiat-e-Islami, and was appointed the Defense Minister of Afghanistan. He kept repelling the Taliban until the collapse of the government in 1996 and went into exile to continue the fight but was assassinated just two days before the 9/11 attacks. But his death was not in vain, as NATO teamed up with Massoud's forces and brought down the Taliban rule in 2001.
For the Taliban, taking Badakshan and Takhar was more than just expansion. It was revenge. These two provinces provided clear points of entry to take Panjshir valley. If the Taliban were to take advantage of that, they could do what the Soviets couldn't in the 1980s.
On June 30, the Resolute Mission Support Group (NATO) pulled out of Afghanistan. This was a non-combatant organization that was tasked with advising, training, and budgeting the Afghan Army. It comprised 36 countries, out of which 33 had removed all its personnel from the nation entirely.
By the end of June, the Taliban controlled 157 districts in Afghanistan and was contesting many more. The waves had become a tsunami, more than half of the country was being downtrodden by war. The withdrawal of NATO and other countries showed that even though districts were toppling like dominoes, the foreign allies were bent on extracting everyone, come hell or high water.
Hell came first.
July – The Month of Pain
A Tale of Two Cities – Kandahar and Herat
While the North was being attacked, many districts fell in Herat as well (West). For context, Herat is the second largest province in Afghanistan and one of the most heavily populated.
From June 30 to July 9, only two districts remained under Government control – Injil and Guzarah, sandwiched between Injil and Guzarah, the capital city of Herat, clinging to life amidst the burning ashes of its sisters. Once called the 'Pearl of Khorasan,' the sooty flames appeared as black as coal now. Ghoryan in Herat remained fiercely contested – both the Afghan Army and the Taliban claimed that it was theirs. The Taliban launched a suicide attack on the city on June 30 and managed to edge out the Army on July 5.
Right next door, the province of Kandahar was being routed. This was the home of the Taliban, the place from where they had risen. Around 3rd to July 5, the Panjwai district was taken in Kandahar. This was the specific place from where the group had surged in 1994. Shah Wali Kot, another neighboring district, also fell. Slowly, the Taliban was choking the city of Kandahar (Provincial Capital) and surrounding it from all sides. There were some anti-Taliban warlords and Army protecting Kandahar at the time, but they were being given a run for their money by the terrorists.
This came just two days after the American Bagram Air Base was evacuated by United States personnel in the middle of the night without informing anyone. The Afghan Commander himself found out many hours later. Bagram was the largest military airfield in Afghanistan from which airstrikes could be launched quickly onto nearby targets. Just a hundred kilometers away lay Panjwai that was under the scrutiny of the airbase. The airstrikes from Bagram got transferred to a base in Qatar and Navy strike carrier groups in the Persian Gulf. But this significantly reduced the capacity of the Afghan cities to defend themselves. This situation shows the effect the US withdrawal had on the takeover.
On July 4, the Taliban started their attack on Spin Boldak that was just a hundred kilometers away from the entrance of Kandahar. They were met with very meager resistance as the anti-Taliban forces retreated and took the decision to defend Kandahar instead. They eventually managed to take control of a large base in the district and forced the small troops in Spin Boldak to surrender by July 14.
Even in Kandahar, we see the situation of constant abandonment. Maywand district was taken early in June due to the Army leaving it wide open for the Taliban to possess.
By July 15, only the central cities of Kandahar, Daman, and Arghanbad remained in the province. In the next few days, the Taliban managed to take Arghanbad as well. Now, only Daman and the central city remained. The Kandahar Air Field was under government control and was trying to support the men on the ground, but if Daman fell, Kandahar wouldn't hold out for long.
Herat was also crumbling; on July 30, the road leading to Herat airport was captured and cut off. On the same day, the United Nations Assistance Mission compound in Herat was attacked by the Taliban with rocket-propelled grenades and ammunition.
Ismail Khan, an anti-Taliban warlord, who had a lot of repute and men, vowed to defend the city against the enemy. Ismail was a former warlord who had fought against the Soviets when they tried to invade Afghanistan. He was first a governor of Herat and later joined politics and became a diplomat for the Jamiat-e-Islami – the same political party that Massoud was a part of. He served as the Minister of Energy from 2005 to 2013. Khan still kept a vast force handy, and his reputation as a warrior had not gone away. Both Injil and Guzarah had heavy fighting that was taking place between Ismail Khan and the Taliban. Guzarah was on its knees while Injil was surviving somehow. Things were not looking good for the west.
The Knife's Edge – Battle for Lashkar Gah
Helmand is the largest province of Kandahar, and Lashkar Gah is its capital. Since May, the Taliban have thrown everything at it in an attempt to take it down. This is one of the only cities that the Taliban have attacked first instead of rural areas. This gave the Afghanistan army an advantage. As discussed earlier, the government would fight tooth and nail to defend big cities; this was the case with Lashkar Gah. A constant supply of commandos and airstrikes from the US military allowed them to hold the city till July.
On July 11, the Taliban detonated a bomb inside the city, killing three civilians. This was combined with the use of the elite Red Unit. The Taliban's shock troopers were equipped with better weapons and more able training. These units isolated various security forces into small sections of the city and pressured them with explosives. A constant stream of rockets was fired on the city – some in the form of airstrikes by the Americans and the others being grenades wielded by the Taliban. The Battle of Lashkar Gah can easily be classified as the most significant conflict in the entire event. The use of explosives was so high that the situation forced the government to order the citizens to evacuate the city to prevent casualties. The governor's house and the police headquarters near it were the main areas of contention. Battle lines were drawn up, and reinforcements kept coming on both sides.
Lashkar Gah would fall on August 11 when the Taliban would use a suicide bomber to drive a car loaded with bombs into the police station. After that, they would gain control over the governor's house in a matter of hours. However, one story stands out starkly amid the other cities in Afghanistan, where the armed forces indeed did what should have been done throughout the country. Credit must go where it is due. It certainly goes towards the courage and determination of the defenders of Lashkar Gah – who were able to hold their own against one of the most fierce and direct attempts that the Taliban made towards any city during this resurgence.
August – The Month of Sadness
Beginning of the End – The Fall of the Provincial Capital
On August 6, the Taliban rode into the district of Zaranj without meeting a single bullet of resistance.
The first provincial capital had fallen.
The next day, Shibirgan – the capital of Jawzjan – was gone.
Everything began to crumble.
August 8, the Red Unit mobilized a vanguard and managed to storm the city of Kunduz. It was now in the Taliban's hands.
The same day, defensive lines were breached by the Taliban in Taluqan. US airstrikes failed to stop the advance of the insurgents. All government offices were left abandoned.
The Air Force and the commandos had been spreading out their resources for over two weeks now, and the toll was beginning to show. It was impossible for them to contain so many cities that were besieged.
Two days later, both Sar-i-Pul and Pul-i-Khumri are gone.
The governor of Pul-i-Khumri said that they could not hold out any longer due to the lack of reinforcements and the desertion of their allies.
Afghanistan had no more will left to fight on. Taliban now controlled entire provinces. The weight of constant battle had broken the courage and morale of the Afghanis. They could no longer carry on. Declining support from the American and European powers worsened the entire affair.
On August 12, Ghazni fell after a push from the Taliban into the governor's compound. The governor arranged a compromise with the Taliban. He offered them the city for sparing his life. Later, they sent him back to the ANSF officers, where he was arrested for selling the city.
After two weeks of siege, Herat was captured on the same day. The subsequent collapse of so many provincial capitals had boosted morale to new heights in the Taliban camp. Like a lion that had claimed fresh blood, they broke the defenses of Herat, causing Ismail Khan to flee to the neighboring country. He, along with many Afghan forces, surrendered to the Taliban within 24 hours.
Kandahar followed a similar story. The Afghan Army was stubborn in its defense which caused the Taliban to shift focus to the airport where they used rockets (much like Lashkar Gah) to delay flights launching off to make airstrikes. On August 11, ANDSF lost their base in Kandahar, which was near the prison, due to heavy fighting. The next day they fled the city, giving over control to the enemy.
Twelve provincial capitals had fallen within the first two weeks of August.
Afghanistan was lost.
The King's Throne – Kabul
By August 14, 24 capitals had been taken. The Taliban entered Maidan Shahr and claimed it for themselves. Maidan Shahr is just 46 km away from Kabul – a perfect opening to enter the city from. During all this, the Afghan military had suffered huge losses. Out of its seven corps headquarters, five were lost or deserted –
203rd – Gardez
205th – Herat
209th – Mazar-i-Sharif
207th – Kandahar
2015th – Helmand
217th – Kunduz
The raging fire that was supposed to be the Afghan Army had been turned into dying embers. ANSF's 111th Division and the 201st Corps in Kabul were the only defense the city was left with. The United States government was no longer looking the other way. It petitioned the Taliban to spare its embassy and personnel and allow them to evacuate. But to no avail, they did not relent.
On August 15, 2021, the Taliban entered Kabul unchallenged. Mujahideen boots hadn't walked this soil freely since December of 2001.
President Ghani left the country and fled to Tajikistan. The people had already lost their faith in the government, and this was nothing more than just salt on the wound. The rest of Afghanistan would keep fighting in small pockets. Panjshir would hold out till September 6 under the leadership of Massoud's son – Ahmad Massoud – but as it stood, the Taliban controlled the entire country.
Babur's land had given way for new masters.
Causes
Reserved Tactics of the Afghan Military
The strategy of the alliance, as discussed before, had always been to prioritize the centers of power and abandon small rural areas if necessary. This eventually backfired. Instead of explaining it to you, let me ask you a question.
Do you see a pattern in the way that the Taliban took the cities?
Use the 'playing safe' plan of the enemy against them by pushing the Army back from rural areas and force them to abandon posts that could have been held.
Take as much rural land as possible, except two or three districts, and place the main cities under siege.
Hold out the siege by cutting off supplies and reinforcements and wait for the right moment to strike.
When the city is tired, surge forward and attack explosively to take down the defense and conquer the city.
This happened everywhere – from Herat in the West to Taluqan in the North. City after city was put under siege and broken over a matter of a few months. In contrast, many districts were taken without a single shot being fired.
In this case, the American-Afghan alliance was completely outsmarted. When Biden said that the 300,000 Afghan troops could defend themselves, he was right. But they definitely couldn't protect themselves by practicing such strategies that took them from advantageous to horrible positions in such a short period of time.
Neglect to the rising threat
Many people disagree that this was an intelligence failure, but in hindsight, it was. The Taliban constantly was toppling districts under the nose of the Afghan Army, and both the United States and the Afghan government refused to address the situation until it got too worse. For example, on July 22, the Joint Chief of Staff Chairman said that the Taliban were 'sort of' gaining momentum. On July 22, the Taliban had indirect control of over 80% of Afghanistan. This was either a gross mistake on the part of the United States or a sloppy cover-up.
Other actions like leaving the Bagram airbase in the dead of night, which caused severe hampering of the Air Force, have only contributed to the advantages of the Taliban.
Taking the North
For years now, analysts have told us that the key for the Taliban to topple the Afghan government would be to take the North.
As much as it hurts to write this, the proximity to the Pakistani border is why the Taliban are so strong in the south and the east. Pakistan has served as a haven for many mujahideen who can regroup and finance their missions remotely from there. But the North has always remained elusive to them. This is because of anti-Taliban forces, headed by Ahmad Massoud (Son of Ahmad Shah Massoud), in Panjshir and the placement of Kabul close to the North. But during this takeover, the North was a place that the Taliban devoted a lot of patience and energy to. The attacks on Kunduz, Takhar, and Badakhshan tell us that. Once the North was under pressure, it was easy to dial up the tension in the south and the west to cause the downfall.
Lack of Local Administration and the State of Army
Even though there are so many districts in Afghanistan, there is no solid district-level administration. This comes from the fact that the previous President, Hamid Karzai, wanted to keep power in his own hands and stripped local administration of control. This causes the Taliban activity in the lower districts to go almost unnoticed. Even when they are found out, there is no one strong enough to take action against them.
Moreover, the Afghan Army was full of corrupt officers who enlisted fake soldiers in the Army to siphon their pay into personal accounts. This crippled the system and did not allow for the smooth functioning of the military. A report even shows that one-third of the Afghan jets could not be declared fit even for take-off.
Lack of Trust and Social Media Influence
Even though it is an extremely orthodox organization, the Taliban has used social media to its full extent. They publicized videos of their ideology and helped convince people that they were the true keepers of Islam. Their outreach grew until they were easily accepted in backward areas as heroes who had come to deliver them from the interfering white man.
Because didn't the foreign Mehmans turn large areas of their cities into restricted zones for their bases?
Weren't they paid higher and, on many occasions, not required to give taxes?
Weren't they the ones that decided the rules of engagement in a country that was not their own?
Whether these questions hold ground or not is up to the reader to decide, but they do for many Afghan public members. For them, on August 15, the Taliban were not invaders wrongfully taking the city. Instead, they were liberators freeing the people from what was supposed to be the enemy.
But as it stands – the United States administration is in a complete state of disarray over its plans. The forces of Massoud are scattered in the hills of Panjshir valley. Ismail Khan has somehow managed to escape to Iran while Ghani is in Abu Dhabi. And the Taliban are seated, not with pens and ink, but with guns and blood in the capital at Kabul.