The Champions League Final - A Preview
Written on August 23rd , 2020 by {"login"=>"jcbitshyd", "email"=>"journal@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in", "display_name"=>"Journal Club, BPHC", "first_name"=>"", "last_name"=>""}This season of the Champions League has been a refreshing departure from the competition's last few editions. We witnessed some surprise early exits and some fairly big upsets with teams like Atalanta, Leipzig, and Lyon, making it much further than most people would've have expected them too. And with Real Madrid's Champions League dominance all but over, many major teams are in the rebuilding phase; it's an exciting time for wishers for a more level competition. Things were only made more interesting, with the competition being affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many wondered if the league would even conclude. There were also concerns over player's fitness, and experts predicted that the teams taking fitness seriously during the lockdown were going to be the ones that come out on top.
Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid kicked off the Round of 16 matchups, and right as the big matches were coming up, the tournament was halted due to COVID, in March. The knockout matches were moved to Portugal, and ties were made one-legged. While UEFA was pretty swift in taking action regarding this, it couldn't avoid controversies. Local civic and medical authorities retrospectively blamed the first leg of the Atalanta v Valencia tie for contributing to the high concentration of coronavirus cases in Atalanta's home city of Bergamo. Several fans and players of Valencia also had positive diagnoses after returning from the game. The second leg of the Atlético Madrid v Liverpool tie was similarly blamed for the sharp increase in coronavirus-related deaths in North West England. The last day before the lockdown saw Liverpool head out dramatically, with 2 extra-time goals by Atleti to snatch victory from the hands of Liverpool.
The competition came back in August and brought with it the remaining ties of the Round of 16 matches. Lyon held their nerves despite Ronaldo's best efforts to go through on away goals. At the same time, Real Madrid was pretty underwhelming after their La Liga victory to hand Manchester City a comfortable 4-2 aggregate victory. Barcelona and Bayern meanwhile, brushed aside their opponents, Napoli and Chelsea without breaking a sweat.
The Quarter-Finals
The quarter-finals brought a cruel defeat for Atlanta, Serie-A's new up and coming top-level team, with their exciting and fast-paced football, who would've been worthy Semi-finalists. PSG went through on two goals at the end of the game, two minutes apart. It was all the more heart-breaking as Atlanta had a real shot at challenging in Serie-A too, but lost their way after the resumption of play after COVID. In the next match, RB Leipzig, a club founded only 11 years ago and played in the third-tier of the German domestic league, defeated Atletico Madrid to go through to the Semi-Finals.
Some experts believed that the single-legged ties gave smaller teams a way better shot at progressing against giant clubs.
Then came the real shocker. Barcelona had problems with their aging squad and disharmony between the coach, players, and the board, but it was made clear as ever by Bayern's tactics and fitness that they maintained during the lockdown. Bayern pushed forward by keeping only a 3 man backline. None of Barcelona's players played well or displayed any intent to win. Messi gave up pretty early on and walked 6 kilometers in the game. The defence was dismal, and Barcelona's reckless spending on unnecessary signings instead of relying on academy players contributed to this embarrassing defeat. According to some, Messi is reconsidering his future at the club. While we have heard that before, it's a possibility that would shake the football world, especially Barcelona, considering any team has the resources to support Messi's insane wages.
Manchester City's unlucky streak in the top league in Europe continued with a 3-1 loss to Lyon. City lacked the finishing prowess, which is the last bit of thrust a team needs to power through in these tense situations. Lyon finished their domestic season in 7th place, so this was another surprising result. Neutral fans loved the smaller teams from the so-called "farmer leagues' going through.
The Semi-Finals
The Semi-Finals featured an unlikely bunch. Bayern wasn't that surprising as they bulldozed their way to this stage, breaking the record for the most number of goals in the shortened edition of the CL. No one expected Lyon and RB Leipzig. PSG was a bit of a surprise too, they are a good team, but they usually lose composure exhibited by other more experienced teams. The unpredictability of previous games meant no one was betting big on what was going to happen in the semis. For the first time since the 2006-07 season, no Spanish team managed to reach the competition's semi-finals. It is also the first time that no English or Spanish team has managed to reach the competition's semi-finals since the 1995-96 season, and the first time since the 1990-91 European Cup that no English, Italian or Spanish team reached the semi-finals. While, for the first time in competition history, two French teams managed to reach the semi-finals.
RB Leipzig was up first, going against PSG. The match wasn't exciting, disappointing many who expected more of a fearless style of play from RB, considering they had nothing to lose and had made it pretty far. However, this could be due to the absence of Werner, who was sold to Chelsea in July. Nevertheless, they didn't press much, and a lot of the match was mindless passing between the midfielders. PSG played decently, but with Veratti out injured, their midfield creaked during crowded situations. Something to look out for during their next match.
Bayern vs. Lyon was more captivating. With Lyon creating early chances exploiting Bayern's high line. They couldn't capitalize on them though, with Bayern finishing well and Lyon giving up not much into the second half. Lyon didn't deserve to lose 3-0, but they didn't deserve to go to the final either.
Thoughts in Retrospect
Looking back, this year's Champions League was more surprising, fresh, and indicative of how different the next 5 years of top-tier football is going to look like, more than anyone had predicted. It partly restored fans' faith in football without the excessive commercialization that is so intertwined with the sport today. The final is sure to be an interesting fixture. Bayern will be looking to get their 2nd treble in 7 years while PSG will be gunning for their first-ever CL title and their first treble.
Can PSG's money beat the well-oiled German machine?
We are all set for a showdown between two very entertaining and attacking teams with the champions of Germany taking on French champions. The Bavarians, coming into the finals after decimating Barcelona in the quarters, have been the first-ever to start a campaign with 10 consecutive wins and will be looking to complete their treble for the second time in their history while PSG having reached this stage for the first time in their history will be chasing their first-ever Champions League and consequently their first treble, hoping to break the jinx of their failures of recent years.
Tactical Overview
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich plays in a 4-2-3-1 formation with a high press and possibly, the highest backline in Europe.
Bayern generally employs their full-backs to good use in attack with Davies' speed and dribbling ability being a lethal weapon on the left-wing. Muller, having come to form again under Flick, is their go-to man who helps transition the ball quickly from the midfield to the attack and whose exceptional positional play by drifting across the pitch creates space for the wingers to exploit by disrupting Marquinhos' play and baiting their defensive line. Thiago's brilliant vision and passing ability are intrinsic to their build-up play providing through balls and long balls to the front three. Thiago will also be important in dropping to the backline, holding the ball to thwart PSG's press, and giving their full-backs a chance to make runs. Lewandowski, who is currently in the form of his life, is their greatest goal-scoring threat having netted 55 times this season. His link-up play with Muller will look to cut open PSG's defence with Gnabry's runs to be something that PSG have to look out for in the space provided by Bernat during turnovers.
During the defence, Bayern in their high press may look to tuck in their wingers with Lewa dropping in to cover their defensive midfielder, thus providing a numerical advantage in the middle of the park with Muller being the pivot during transitions. In the back, Alaba has formed a great partnership with Davies, both being quick to recover balls, but it's their right side that they got to keep an eye out for. Kimmich and Boateng are slower and are more likely to be exposed due to the pace of Mbappe as seen against Lyon in the opening moments of the game.
Goretzka is going to be important for protecting their right side despite being expected to be progressive in his movement up the pitch. With Pavard coming to fitness, Flick may switch him with Kimmich for his greater speed and put Kimmich in the midfield instead of Goretzka, providing better coverage and also mitigating Neymar's movement between the lines by sitting deeper.
Bayern has great depth in their squad with the likes of Kingsley Coman, Coutinho providing attacking options and is up to Flick as to how he utilizes them.
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG plays in a pretty straight-forward 4-3-3 formation, and are a fairly possession-based side, opting to play out from the back.
A lot of PSG's tactics going forward will depend on whether Bayern employs their high line. If they do so, Mbappe and Di Maria's pace will be used to full advantage with long balls being played, and if Bayern chooses to sit deeper, this provides more space to Neymar to play between the lines and create chances for others or come at the Bayern defence himself. Neymar and Mbappe's chemistry and passing will create problems for Bayern in the left flank. In the midfield, Tuchel has options to partner with Herrera flanking Marquinhos as the pivot; he can choose to play Gueye who is a more attack-minded option like he did against Atalanta or play with Paredes like against Leipzig who excels as a press breaking passer who may be more useful against a team like Bayern who employ a high press to devastating effect as seen against Barcelona. However, he may ideally want Verratti, who is still uncertain to start having made a cameo for around seven minutes in the semi-final. In the end, Tuchel's midfield choice will determine how PSG progress the ball.
Marquinhos is going to have the difficult task of watching and keeping track of Muller's movement, and Herrera may be deployed with the task to man-mark Thiago to stifle Bayern's build-up instead of going wide to cover the full-backs like he usually does. PSG will have to maintain a very disciplined midfield to prevent balls from being played in between the lines. Their front three who generally don't trackback will have their defensive work cut out for them to maintain a high press and put pressure on Bayern's full-backs, hoping to keep them contained and prevent them from being too adventurous during their attacks. One way to achieve that is maybe by switching Di Maria and Mbappe, Mbappe's pace being a detriment to Davies going forward to prevent Mbappe from running during counter-attacks.
The fitness of Keylor Navas, the Costa Rican in goal, is still in doubt. But, if some news outlets are to be believed, Navas' coming back to fitness would be great news for Tuchel, with the shot-stopper between the posts providing greater confidence to the defence.
PSG, too, has great depth with Icardi, Choupo-Moting, Draxler, and Sarabia, providing a lot of options. Verratti coming to full fitness offers more attacking options for Tuchel on the bench.
Final Thoughts
This match is going to be an exciting one with no lack of goals and attacking plays. It is surely going to be a more thrilling match than last year's final, and we will have to wait and see how Bayern's backline fares against PSG's front three, whether Lewandowski will break Cristiano's record for the most goals scored in a Champions League season, and who will complete the elusive treble.
Shreyas' Prediction: It's going to be a close match, but I'd put my bet on Bayern winning 3-2, though this game will be decided on the finer margins and the chances taken and missed by both teams.
Ankur's Prediction: While PSG has done well to get to the final, in my opinion, they lack the temperament, and Bayern is just devastating this season. I'll go with Bayern winning 4-1.