JC Explains: The Coronavirus Outbreak
Written on February 15th, 2020 by {"login"=>"jcbitshyd", "email"=>"journal@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in", "display_name"=>"Journal Club, BPHC", "first_name"=>"", "last_name"=>""}We've all read the papers and discussed in sombre tones the growing threat posed by what might very well result in a horrific pandemic: the Coronavirus. But the rumours and half-truths that circulate amongst the people don't help in the slightest, least of all in a dire situation such as this one. The Journal Club has compiled various articles on the matter to set things straight.
The Outbreak
The earliest trace of the Coronavirus were cases of pneumonia detected in Wuhan, China, which were first reported to the World Health Organization on December 31, 2019. During this period, the extent of the spread of the virus was unknown. The next day, Chinese health authorities closed the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market after it was discovered that several of those infected worked there and that the wild animals sold there may be the source of the virus.
Origin Of The Virus
According to WHO, this was a new virus named 2019-nCoV(Novel Coronavirus) that was identified as belonging to the coronavirus family, which includes SARS and the common cold. Coronaviruses are common and spread through being in proximity to an infected person and inhaling droplets generated when they cough or sneeze, or touching a surface where these droplets land and then touching one's face or nose. Similar to the coronavirus family including SARS and MERS, it was suggested that the 2019-nCoV also originated from bats. But new reports indicate that the virus was probably transmitted to humans by another animal. The South China Agricultural University in Guangzhou in their study found that the strain of Coronavirus found in local pangolins is 99% identical to the latest spreading among humans.
The Spread Of The Virus
On January 11, China announced its first death from the virus, a 61-year-old man due to heart failure. On January 13, the WHO reported a case in Thailand, the first outside of China, a woman who had arrived from Wuhan. Authorities in the US, Nepal, France, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan confirmed cases over the following days. While the Chinese Government tried to contain the outbreak by suspending air and rail departures from Wuhan and several other cities in the Hubei province, the virus showed no signs of diminishing. Even the Lunar New Year celebrations were cancelled while iconic venues like Disneyland Shanghai, The Great Wall and others were closed for visitors. On January 30, India and the Philippines confirmed their first cases of the virus, with one infected patient in each country. The WHO declared Coronavirus a global emergency as the death toll in China jumped to 170, with 7,711 cases reported in the country, where the virus had now spread to each of the 31 provinces. The virus made its way to Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, Singapore, the US, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Vietnam as well.
Extent Of The Spread
As of February 9, at 811, the total number of fatalities in China from the virus surpassed the toll of the 2002-2003 SARS epidemic, when 774 were killed worldwide. Total infections in China rose to 37,198. But, there has been a decline in the number of new coronavirus cases for the past two days, which has been cautiously welcomed by the director-general of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
Containing The Spread
With misinformation spreading almost as fast as the virus, the governments of several of the affected territories are working with the WHO to educate people on how best to contain the spread. The WHO has been working round the clock to compile detailed analyses and risk assessments and spread awareness as to the preventive measures that can be taken. Several suspected cases have led to quarantine, especially in China and its close neighbours. The most recent update from February 9 from the Japanese health authorities has confirmed a quarantine on board the ship, Diamond Princess, until the 19th of February. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), along with WHO, have recommended specific guidelines to minimise infection amongst aircraft crew, airport staff and personnel as well as amongst travellers, and the transport through China is now under scrutiny. Live animal markets are to be avoided or to be visited only after taking the appropriate precautionary measures. Due to the nature of spread, it is advised that people practice basic hygiene, especially while in public; for example, avoiding close contact with ill people and preventing the spread of pathogens via sneezing/coughing can significantly reduce the risk of infection. It is also suggested that people who have similar symptoms must contact a medical practitioner at the earliest to determine whether isolation is required.
Assessing The Damage
Due to its high infect-ability and lethality, the novel Coronavirus has caused mass unrest and hysteria amongst people of China as well as the rest of the world. China had suffered a significant hit to its economy as Wuhan was a considerable region pivotal to the Chinese manufacturing industry. Some experts even expect delays to global icons, like Apple's iPhone and Sony's upcoming PS5. On Saturday, January 25, the first day of the Lunar New Year, overall travel dropped 28.8% from a year ago majorly due to the cessation of high speed-trains and civil air travel. According to Wang Jiangping, vice-minister of industry and information technology, there is a particular shortage of protective suits and face masks, especially in Wuhan. Consumer prices in China recorded their biggest year-on-year jump since 2011 as prices rose 5.4 per cent in January compared to a year earlier with food prices up 20.6 per cent.
The Cure
With the pressure to counter the virus mounting, scientists and researchers around the world are working to develop a cure. Pharmaceutical companies like Novavax and Moderna have reportedly been working on a new vaccine and are planning to conduct test trials. DNA-based research and vaccination are being explored, though human trials are still some way off. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), which is under the NIH, has created a Vaccine Research Centre (VRC), involving a collaboration between academics, researchers and health specialists. However, the exact amount of time it will take for an effective vaccine to be developed is still uncertain.
Article Written by Pratyush Mallick and Pranav P. Nayar